SA Graan/Grain
contributor
During a recent discussion on CNBC (Consumer and Business Channel), Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz (Agricultural Business Chamber), participated in a discussion regarding South African and Southern African agricultural developments and trade. He gave his perspective on how markets, regional dynamics, and trade strategy shape opportunities for South African agriculture, including grain and oilseed producers.
Africa’s role in South Africa’s agricultural exports
The African continent remains vital to South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for roughly half of the country’s annual exports. In 2024, about $13,7 billion (R237 billion) in products was exported to the world market and the expectation is that this year South Africa’s agricultural exports will exceed the $14 billion mark for the first time.
Africa has been central to this export growth, particularly the Southern Africa region. Roughly 90 cents in every dollar of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the African continent go to Southern African countries. These are mainly in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Free Trade Area. The country will likely remain heavily dominant in these regions for some time.
The grain industry is one of the major exporters to the Southern Africa region, where roughly half of exports are typically to the region each year. Other key export markets for the maize industry are in the Far East. Oilseeds also show roughly a similar export pattern.
However, growth is limited as South Africa is not as strong in other parts of the continent. The product scope of agricultural exports into SACU and SADC is quite diverse. It includes maize, processed food products, apples and pears, sugar, animal feed, prepared or bottled water, fruit juices, and wine. The question is how much more South Africa can export beyond the SACU/SADC region, and what its attitude is towards greater Africa.
Potential and limits in other African regions
The most reasonable assumption is that South Africa will target West, East and North Africa. But such expansion has limits. For a start, Africa north of the Sahara – more specifically Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia – is much closer to Europe and its trade activity is more closely linked to the European Union (EU) than to Sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing a market presence in North Africa may prove challenging due to direct competition with well established EU supply chains and competitive local produce.
South Africa’s realistic opportunity within the Afri-can continent is more likely in East and West Africa. Leveraging the tariff-free movement of goods in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) would potentially boost the country’s agricultural exports to these regions. But, at least in the near term, trade with these regions may not yield many benefits for South Africa.
For this, there are at least three reasons. Firstly, East and West Africa have a range of non-tariff barriers, which could hinder boosting trade regardless of lower tariffs through AfCFTA. Secondly, high levels of corruption, which increase the costs of doing business, have proven to be a significant concern. Thirdly, fragmented value chains owing to poor connectivity and infrastructure are a major contributor to transport costs.
This narrow scope of expanding agricultural exports in the African continent typically leads to frustration among business leaders, who continue to see improvement in domestic production but are limited in avenues for sales. The major economies in the eastern and western parts of the continent, Nigeria and Kenya, remain small markets for South Africa’s agricultural exports, each accounting for a mere 2% per year.
Still, Nigeria spends over $6 billion on agricultural imports per year. The key beneficiaries of the Nigerian agriculture market are Brazil, the United States, China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand, and Germany. This is through imports of wheat, dairy products, sugar, processed food, palm oil, and maize, among other products.
Meanwhile, Kenya is a relatively small market with just over $2 billion worth of agriculture and food imports per year. Their key suppliers are Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Russia, Pakistan, Uganda, Tanzania, India, and Egypt. Kenya’s key agriculture and food imports are palm oil, wheat, rice, sugar, processed food, maize, dairy products, pasta, and sorghum. South Africa will play more of a maintenance role rather than expecting further expansion in the African continent.
Focus shifts to Asia and the Middle East
South Africa’s export diversification agenda increasingly points towards Asia and the Middle East as priority regions, including for grain and oilseed markets. The growing population and better income levels in these regions are among the key indicators.
For example, South Africa has resumed maize exports to Far Eastern destinations. Nearly 23% of the 897 891 tons exported between May and October 2025 in the 2025/2026 marketing year was destined for markets such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Meanwhile, Agbiz has identified China’s willingness to increase imports of South African agricultural products, including maize and soybeans, as a signal of opportunity for the grain and oilseed value chain. Tapping into these expanding markets will require more than just shipments – it will demand technical engagement, tariff barrier negotiations, and strong logistic systems to ensure grains and oilseeds can reach these regions competitively.
If South Africa’s grain and oilseed producers align their production, value chain coordination, and export readiness to these markets, the Middle East and Asia could become meaningful growth corridors complementing traditional African export routes.
