CALM, STRATEGIC THINKING WILL SEE US THROUGH

Published: 4 February 2026

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Dr Tobias Doyer
CEO, Grain SA

Agriculture is forever in a crisis or heading into a crisis. Socrates, as quoted by Xenophon some 400 years before Christ, stated: ‘…for my part I agree with all you say; only, one must face the fact that in agriculture nine matters out of ten are beyond man’s calculation. Since at one time hailstones and another frost, at another drought or a deluge of rain, or mildew, or other pest, will obliterate all the fair creations and designs of men; or behold, his fleecy flocks most fairly nurtured, then comes murrain, and the end most foul destruction.

Google states that ‘murrain’ was also used in the early Greek translations for the fifth plague where horses, donkeys, camels, herds, and flocks were struck down – quite appropriate for the foot-and-mouth-disease times we are in.

Society often jokes that farmers are complainers when in fact their enduring optimism and unwavering dedication to their work speak volumes of their commitment and resilience in a formidable, volatile environment. When the full extent of these challenges is considered, it becomes clear that our grain producers’ complaints are more justified than ever, as we are in dire straits. This includes the global community of grain producers, along with sugar, rice, and other commodity producers, as reported by international media.

This year promises to be particularly challenging, with grain prices expected to remain under immense pressure due to global oversupply (biggest US harvest expected), market dynamics, and a relatively stronger rand. This persistent pressure on prices is not the result of irrational behaviour by producers, but rather a structural feature of global grain markets.

Individual producers have no ability to influence prices and are compelled to maximise output to preserve cash flow and cover fixed costs. While collective production restraint would theoretically support prices, no single producer can reduce output unilaterally without bearing the full financial cost. As a result, oversupply persists, prices remain depressed, and market correction occurs only through prolonged financial strain rather than coordinated adjustment.

Compounding these difficulties, South African producers face competition from subsidised international counterparts who benefit from access to advanced technologies. Regulatory constraints and bureaucratic hurdles limit the introduction of these technologies into our market, placing domestic producers at a disadvantage that intensifies the pressures on farm profitability.

I look forward to the regional visits as one of the highlights of my year despite being tough on body and mind due to the hectic schedule. I value the opportunity to engage directly with producers to ensure that our strategies are firmly grounded in the needs of our members. ‘Never let a good crisis go to waste’ is an inappropriately optimistic quote in times of real distress, and Grain SA will surely use the focus and seriousness brought by tough times to re-evaluate everything we do.

Grain SA, as the collective voice of grain producers, has limited ability to ease pressures in the short term. The organisation drives change through collective intent over time, while only individual producers can influence immediate realities.

During the regional meetings we will engage in substantive discussions with all our members to determine the collective action on issues that will ensure the profitability and sustainability of grain producers. This will require calm, focused analysis and disciplined action. While producers face immense pressure, it is measured, thoughtful responses – not reactive noise – that will see us through these challenges.

Public discourse today – especially on social media – is often driven by outrage rather than solutions. The recent foot-and-mouth disease crisis shows how blame has overshadowed constructive engagement. Some of this criticism comes from within the agricultural sector, even as the Department of Agriculture under Minister Steenhuisen has made tangible progress. Now, more than ever, producers and industry must set aside divisions and focus on practical solutions. While some default to criticism, dismissing effort and undermining action, progress depends on constructive engagement. Yet their negativity is rarely accompanied by constructive contribution and draws others into a cycle of cynicism that discourages progress.

At Grain SA, we choose engagement over observation and responsibility over rhetoric. Our commitment is to remain firmly involved where the real work is done: alongside producers, in complex discussions, and in difficult decisions that shape the future of the grain industry. Regardless of external criticism or inaction elsewhere, we will continue to act decisively, guided by evidence, integrity, and the long-term interests of South African grain producers.