CEO, Grain SA
AGRICULTURE IS ONE OF SOUTH AFRICA’S MOST VALUABLE SECTORS, PROVIDING AFFORDABLE FOOD, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, AND WORK. YET FEW INDUSTRIES HIGHLIGHT THE GAP BETWEEN NATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND FARM-GATE REALITIES AS SHARPLY AS WHEAT.
Wheat producers face pressure from unpredictable seasons, distorted subsidised international markets and thin domestic margins. Without local wheat production, consumers would have spent about R700 million more annually – a sum that, rather than enriching producers, circulates through local businesses, schools, and rural communities. The wheat debate is not only about a crop but about national welfare, rural survival, and food sovereignty.
A sector in bloom yet under strain
September is a joyous month in the winter cereal region, with green wheat fields framed by blooming yellow canola – a reminder of the potential in diversified rotations. Canola’s success, driven by producer entrepreneurship and Southern Oil’s (SOILL) innovation, shows what a supportive ecosystem can build. Wheat, however, is not sharing the same buoyant conditions.
Half of South Africa’s wheat is imported, making it unique among our grains. Unlike maize, often exported, or oilseeds with growing processing capacity, wheat faces a structural gap. Quality matters, and millers and bakers are highly sensitive to intrinsic value and baking quality, shaping procurement and complicating price discovery.
Navigating multiple fronts
There is no silver bullet. Profitability and sustainability in wheat require simultaneous action on various fronts. Each wheat region in South Africa faces unique challenges. Climatic shifts, soil health, herbicide resistance, and cultivar suitability differ by region, demanding tailored research and solutions.
Imports and tariffs remain a balancing act between local competitiveness and consumer affordability. Delays in tariff triggers distort the market, making an automated rules-based system vital to restore confidence. The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa’s (ITAC) slow deliberations on a new regime highlight how politically sensitive this tool has become.
The tension between yield and quality is another pressure point. Producers need high-yielding genetics, but rigid quality criteria risk limiting fair rewards. As Wheat Technical Committee chair Andries Theron has noted, a pricing problem cannot be solved with a technological fix.
Although South Africa’s grading system provides a solid foundation, cost is driven up by storage logistics. Segregating grades is often impractical, while out-loading without grade guarantees undermines trust across the value chain.
Price discovery has improved with the ‘intention to import’ declaration, but futures and cash markets still need to align. Producers are spreading risk through canola, lupins, legumes and practices like conservation agriculture, crop rotation, and soil health as a key for long-term sustainability.
A strategic crossroads
This leaves local producers competing against heavily subsidised farmers in Europe, North America and the Black Sea area – an uneven playing field that costs the country economic growth and investment.
With the World Trade Organisation weakened and protectionism rising after Trump’s tariffs, countries shield key industries. The government of national unity (GNU) must decide whether agriculture is just a source of cheap food or a strategic sector driving jobs, poverty reduction, and foreign earnings.
ArcelorMittal’s flat steel woes show how industries collapse without clear industrial policy – to the detriment of the whole economy. Wheat faces the same risk. Will we let unfair competition ‘export’ our jobs, investment, and food security?
Politics and policy
Minister John Steenhuisen and director-general Mooketsa Ramasodi have shown strong, coordinated leadership, but wheat’s fate goes beyond agriculture. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and its policies will be decisive. Yet coalition politics and slow decision-making add uncertainty, threatening industries that need agile responses.
This reality drives Grain SA and partners to work on multiple tracks – from advocating automated tariffs to securing new breeding technologies and researching cultivars and conservation practices to promote a profitable, sustainable, and globally competitive wheat industry.
From acknowledgement to strategy
The stakes are high. For consumers, unable to absorb rising prices, every rand counts and for producers facing tough odds, every ton affects debt, wages, and livelihoods. Both demand acknowledgement. Wheat is not a luxury – it is a staple. The long-term solution is technology, competitiveness, and fair trade. The short-term challenge is surviving the next season.
When I visited Cape producers last September, I was again struck by their resilience, professionalism, and creativity – they are world-class. But they cannot bear the weight alone. A new political dispensation offers a chance for fresh thinking. Without action, wheat may follow steel, and all South Africans will pay the price.
